On April 24, the Higher School of Economics (HSE University) in Moscow hosted the 58th session of the Interstate Council for Antimonopoly Policy (ICAP), held as part of an international conference commemorating the 35th anniversary of antitrust regulation in Russia. The event also served as an expanded session of the Board of Russia’s Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS). Alexey Ivanov, Director of the BRICS Competition Law and Policy Centre, was honored with a certificate of recognition from the FAS for his long-standing and productive collaboration with the agency, as well as his contributions to advancing economic competition in Russia. Ivanov also delivered a keynote presentation at the ICAP meeting, focusing on the challenges posed to antitrust authorities by the rapid development of artificial intelligence.
Artificial intelligence is becoming a key general-purpose technology — on par with electricity and the internet. It is already reshaping entire sectors, from agriculture to high tech. According to estimates by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the global AI industry could reach a valuation of $4.8 trillion by 2033, representing nearly 30% of the world economy. In Russia, AI is projected to contribute up to 6% of the country’s GDP by 2030 — surpassing sectors such as agriculture and construction. However, Ivanov warned that this explosive growth is driving economic imbalances and exacerbating social inequality, demanding robust intervention from antitrust regulators.
One of the most pressing concerns is the high degree of market concentration in the AI value chain — from raw materials and intellectual property to hardware and computing infrastructure. In lithography, a single company controls 90% of the global market, Ivanov noted. In chip design, NVIDIA holds a dominant 95% share. Such monopolization distorts competitive dynamics and weakens market mechanisms.
“Even in BRICS nations, where strong local players are emerging, the dominance of global tech giants remains pronounced. Many AI products and services are deeply embedded within the ecosystems of major digital corporations,”
Ivanov said.
As an example, he pointed to the Microsoft-OpenAI partnership, which has drawn scrutiny from several antitrust authorities. Microsoft holds influence over multiple layers of the AI infrastructure — from patents to computing power and cloud services — raising concerns over undue market control.
© HSE University
Antitrust regulators across the globe — including in the United States, France, Hungary, India, and beyond — are turning their attention to a growing concern: the limited access to critical resources and data fueling the AI boom. The main challenge they have identified is limited access to key resources and data. Most of the large language models underlying AI are controlled by a few companies. This limits competition and deters the participation of new players, especially from emerging economies. The result is a closed system in which technological and economic leadership is increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few multinationals.
Ivanov drew historical parallels to previous waves of industrial transformation, such as the rise of railroads and electrification. In those eras, effective antitrust policies helped restore market balance through mechanisms like non-discriminatory access to essential infrastructure, interoperability mandates, and even structural separations of monopolies. “These tools proved successful then,” he argued, “and they can be adapted to meet the challenges of the AI era.”
While current legislative efforts in BRICS countries tend to prioritize industrial development, safety, and ethics — addressing issues like deepfakes and cyber threats — Ivanov cautioned that market dysfunction and rising inequality risk being overlooked.
© HSE University
Meanwhile, it is antitrust policy that could play a central role in ensuring fair access to critical technological resources — particularly through international cooperation within organizations like the CIS and BRICS.
AI has the potential not only to strengthen monopolies, but, on the contrary, to democratize access to technology — including helping antitrust regulators themselves. However, for this potential to be realized, it is necessary to focus on the problems of social and economic inequality. It is this factor that is increasingly transforming global markets.
“This is not just an important task for antitrust authorities — it is a strategic objective. Consolidating efforts, sharing expertise, and coordinating with international organizations such as UNCTAD will help Russia and countries with less developed technological bases find their place in the global AI value chain and avoid the extremes of economic imbalance,”
emphasized the Director of the BRICS Competition Centre.
At the end of the meeting, Maxim Shaskolsky, Head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia, presented Alexey Ivanov with a certificate of honor from the FAS of Russia.
In the photo: Maxim Shaskolsky, Alexey Ivanov © HSE University
The Interstate Council for Antimonopoly Policy (ICAP) was established in 1993 in accordance with the Treaty on conducting a coordinated antimonopoly policy of 23.12.93 (new version adopted on January 25, 2000). ICAP unites antimonopoly authorities from 8 CIS member states.
